When The X Factor debuted last September, there were a lot of expectations riding on the show. It was expected to generate a lot of buzz, a lot of water cooler talk, and a lot of ratings.

Two out of three isn’t too bad.

The show did generate a lot of buzz. Almost every American Idol fan site on the Internet talked about the upcoming X Factor. We certainly did here on the Idol Radio Show, as did our sister site, IdolBlogLive.com, along with mjsbigblog.com, rickey.org, and many of the other large AI fan sites. Collectively we all devoted a lot of time to writing and talking about Simon Cowell’s new show.

Paula Abdul’s casting as the fourth and final judge, which was finalized the night before the first auditions were set to be filmed, also created a lot of buzz for the show. There is no question that there was a chemistry between Simon and Paula during all those years of sitting next to each other on American Idol. In fact, their chemistry and verbal sparring sort of left Randy Jackson as the third wheel in their group. Their reunion on The X Factor was something that many Idol bloggers longed for and salivated over for months. We simply couldn’t wait to see them together again.

Even the press got in on the action of creating buzz about the show. Every rumor about who would be joining Simon at the judges’ table was reported on by just about every legitimate, semi-legitimate, and fake news publication. No name was too ridiculous to throw out there for many of the publications, which gave the fan sites something to talk about.

And talk we did, which is where the “water cooler” moments came. All that buzz, all those rumors, led us to talk about what was real and what wasn’t. Even though Cheryl Cole, L.A. Reid, Nicole Scherzinger, and Steve Jones were unknown to some of the bloggers and most of the fans, it didn’t stop us from talking about the show. Instead, we scrutinized what the hiring of all four of them meant for the show. We did exactly what Simon Cowell wanted: we met at the water cooler and discussed whether Simon, and the show, was out of their minds.

Then the drama hit the fan as rumors about Cheryl not connecting with the other judges or the contestants auditioning for the show began to circulate. This created a massive water cooler moment for The X Factor, one that grew with every hour and every day that went by without a word from Simon on what the heck was really going on. It all reached a fevered pitch when the rumor escalated to include Nicole moving from co-host to the judges’ table. Even after the rumors were verified by Simon, the story didn’t end there, as the feud between Cheryl and Simon played out in the press. And like dutiful servants, we all salivated over and talked about every juicy detail every day around the water cooler.

But neither the buzz nor the water cooler talk turned into ratings for The X Factor. Simon thought the show would average at least 20 million viewers for the season. Instead, he was lucky to get just over half of that. Yes, the ratings for the show were better than anything else FOX had ever carried on Wednesdays and Thursdays in the fall. But they were a far cry from the blockbuster ratings that Simon, and most all of us, expected. People talked about the show, but then didn’t bother showing up to watch it.

Even as the season progressed and additional buzz and water cooler moments emerged in the form of Chris Rene, Brian “Astro” Bradley, and Melanie Amaro, new viewers didn’t tune in. When American Idol first aired, the ratings grew almost every week that first season until peaking at the finale. Each season after that continue to grow in the ratings through the end of Season 5. None of that happened, however, with The X Factor, which ended its first season at about the same level that it started.

Simon cutting Melanie Amaro, arguably one of the best, if not the best, singers any competition show on TV has ever seen, during the Judges’ House round? We talked about it, but new viewers didn’t tune in. Chris Rene getting sober, turning his life around, and having a voice to boot? We talked about it, but new viewers didn’t tune in. Brian “Astro” Bradley throwing a hissy fit after being named into the Bottom 2, yet still getting the judges to vote him through to the next week? We certainly talked about that one, a lot, but new viewers didn’t tune in.

In other words, people had made their minds up on whether to watch The X Factor long before the season ever started. Whether all the buzz before the debut turned them off, or the large casting of unknowns as judges and hosts turned them off, or all the drama over Cheryl Cole’s firing turned them off, we may never know. Whatever the reason, they weren’t interested in watching. And while many non-viewers took part in all the buzz and water cooler discussions, that was mostly because the sites they visited for American Idol information also covered The X Factor.

So what does the firing of Steve Jones, Nicole Scherzinger, and Paula Abdul mean for The X Factor? Certainly, their firings fixes a lot of problems that the show had. Steve was a wooden host who was too stiff and inflexible. He didn’t know how to handle the unexpected and never developed a report with any of the contestants. Nicole was seen as shallow and fake throughout the season. Viewers felt like she was always in “me me me” mode, never really interested or concerned with the acts she was mentoring or judging. And Paula’s incoherent ramblings, a trait we loved on American Idol, seemed very out of place on the new show. Worse, there was more magic and chemistry between Simon Cowell and L.A. Reid than there was between Simon and Paula. Whatever magic those two once had was gone. Maybe it was the fact that they had been apart for three years, or maybe it was the format of the show. Either way, it was gone. And it was painfully obvious.

Certainly The X Factor can survive this shake-up. American Idol survived after its overhaul, with a ratings boost to boot. There is no reason to think the same can’t happen to Simon’s new show. Mariah Carey, who was suppose to help Simon during the Judges’ House round last season but had to drop out because of her pregnancy, is already being mentioned as a possibility as a judge for next season. Mariah would certainly bring name recognition to a judges’ table that was sorely lacking in that area in Season 1. And surely Simon could find another big name female artist to join the table for Season 2. Find a host who can hold his or her own up there on stage, and the show will be good to go.

While the ratings for The X Factor may rise as a result of this shake-up, Simon’s dream of having a ratings blockbuster show are nothing more than a pipe dream. I don’t ever see his show overtaking American Idol in the ratings, even with the massive 27% drop Idol has experienced so far this season. In fact, that massive drop in Idol‘s ratings, along with the cancellation of the So You Think You Can Dance results show, should be a signal to Simon that the end of many of the competition shows currently on the air may be in sight. At the rate things are going, America’s Got Talent may survive them all.

The changes Simon is making to The X Factor today may help ensure that it sees a third and fourth season, and possibly more, but I simply don’t see it as catapulting the show into the large ratings blockbuster that Simon and FOX want it to become. Sure, it’s always a possibility that it could happen. The right combination of judges along with talent could add 10 to 20 million more viewers to the show. And it will always be a possibility so long as the show is on the air.

But the airwaves are saturated with competition shows now, and America seems to have made it clear that they are not interested in watching every single one of them. They have a favorite or two, watch only those shows, and follow the rest through the fan sites that cover them all. We’ll have to wait until the axe begins to fall on these shows to see if viewers will migrate over to the remaining shows, however.

So what do you think about the major X Factor shake-up? Will the firing of Steve, Paula, and Nicole result in a huge ratings explosion? Or has that ship already sailed? And who do you think should replace them? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.