James Durbin’s elimination last week from American Idol, an event for which I have yet to forgive America for, has ruined my chance to see a James / Scotty McCreery finale pairing. It was a pairing that would have gone down, in my opinion, as one of the best finale pairings ever in the history of the show.

But, alas, it wasn’t meant to be. Ironically, however, James’ elimination has made predicting the chances of the three remaining contestants, and eventual winner, much easier for me.

After the jump, I will rank each of the three remaining contestants in the order I think they will finish, why I think they will finish in that order, what they need to win , and their chances of winning American Idol Season 10.

Third Place – Lauren Alaina
Lauren Alaina has mad talent and a voice that can sing circles around just about every other American Idol Season 10 contestant. She demonstrated that talent and voice with her Top 24 (Reba McEntire’s “Turn on the Radio”) and Top 12 (Melissa Etheridge’s “I’m The Only One”) performances. Unfortunately for Lauren, something caused her to lose her confidence. She became intimidated by the other contestants and simply gave up. It wasn’t until her Top 6 performance (Carole King’s “Where You Lead”) that she found it again. Temporarily, anyway. You can tell she still struggles with having the confidence to sing the way we know she can sing.

Why she will end up in third: Lauren has made it this far for two reasons: The talent she demonstrated early on in the competition and country fans. While Lauren’s recent performances have been better, they are still a far cry from her Top 24 and Top 12 performances. And America will only allow you to coast on past performances for so long, a fact I think will catch up to her this week. In addition, the majority of country fans see Scotty McCreery as the stronger of the two singers and the one with the better chance of winning, and will likely throw all their votes to him this week. Without those votes, Lauren doesn’t stand a chance.

What she needs to win: To even have a chance of getting past this week, Lauren has to perfectly nail all three of her performances Wednesday night. She has to be confident, strong, and connect with both the song and audience. If she gives the audience even a whiff of a lack of confidence, she’s history. In addition, Lauren is the most susceptible to song choice this week. One wrong song choice, even if it was Jimmy Iovine’s song pick or the judges’ song pick, will cause her to pack her bags for home. In addition, she would need Scotty to be sent home this week.

Chances of winning: 5%. Even if she manages to nail every song this week and make it to the finale, she will likely be up against Scotty. And Lauren can’t win in that pairing. She would need to be up against Haley Reinhart in the finale in order to have a chance of actually winning.

Second Place – Haley Reinhart
America has had a love/hate relationship with most of the contestants this season. More than any other season, each contestant has had an extremely vocal fan base as well as an extremely vocal hater base. But Haley Reinhart has the most vocal of both groups out of all the remaining contestants. Haley has also been in the Bottom 3 more times than any other contestant this season, landing in that group four of the seven times a Bottom 3 was announced. And her singing style has been clearly influenced by her friendship with Casey Abrams.

Why she will end up in second: By all accounts, Haley shouldn’t even have made it this far. Yet each time she has been in the Bottom 3, she managed to squeak by because there was someone else in the Bottom 3 who was as deserving, if not more deserving, to be sent packing. Then Casey was eliminated (again), and Haley was on the receiving end of most of his votes thanks to their rumored dating (Casey has since claimed they have never dated). While the additional votes will likely help her one more week, especially with Lauren on the losing end of the country fan vote, it won’t be enough to overcome Scotty’s popularity. In addition, the very vocal “Haley Must Go NOW!” group will vote for her finale opponent no matter what, and that group may be as large, if not larger, than the country fan base.

What she needs to win: Frankly, she needs America to be smoking and drinking whatever crap they were on back on Season 3 when they voted Fantasia the winner. Short of that, she needs a miracle elimination of Scotty this week to stand a chance, because only a pairing of her and Lauren gives her any chance of winning. That said, she could bolster her chances by getting rid of the Casey-influenced singing she is under right now. She has a raspy voice that is worth listening to when she’s not deafening us with her weird screaming-screeching-growling notes.

Chances of winning: 5%. I’ve counted Haley out of the competition too many times to be dumb enough at this point to say she has no chance of winning. Her best bet is to be paired against Lauren in the finale, though, a scenario that would likely only happen on the Fringe alternate-Earth.

First Place – Scotty McCreery
Scotty McCreery’s country charm, golden lower register, good looks, and awww-shucks personality has made him America’s favorite from his initial audition. The country fan base has latched on to him in a way that they haven’t done since latching on to Carrie Underwood in Season 4. And when this group latches on, they latch on for life. But Scotty has fans outside of that group, thanks to his good performances and great vocals. People like me, who haven’t even thought of buying a country album in decades, have already pre-ordered Scotty’s first album.

Why he will end up in first: While Scotty certainly has a large, and vocal, group swearing they will never watch American Idol again if he wins, he has an even bigger group swearing they will never watch American Idol again if he doesn’t win. And it seems like the second group is growing faster than the first group for all the reasons I mentioned in the first paragraph. It’s been a while since the early favorite has gone all the way, but I think Scotty has what it takes to finally break that curse.

What he needs to win: Solid performances, mostly, since this is his competition to lose. If he keeps delivering the types of performances that have made girls swoon head over heals for him, country music fans salivating for more, and us non-girl, non-country fans ordering albums that aren’t even out yet, then he has this competition locked up. Though I would also appreciate if the Jinx Fairy would ignore that last sentence in the above paragraph.

Chances of winning: 90%. If the finale is Scotty vs. Lauren, Scotty will have the advantage of both the teenage girl votes and the majority of the country votes, thought it is also the pairing that makes him most susceptible to losing. If the finale is Scotty vs. Haley, Scotty will have both of the previous mentioned voting groups PLUS most of the votes that went to Lauren. He would have to completely botch at least one of the three songs this week AND next week in order for their to be any chance of one of the girls overtaking him.

So there you go. I’m calling for a Scotty – Haley – Lauren finish. Do you agree with my order and reasoning? Or do you have delusional reasons to think that the order will be different? Either way, leave your thoughts in the comments below.

And don’t forget to listen to the Idol Radio Show this Wednesday and Thursday at 11 PM ET / 10 CT to find out if the first part of my predictions come true.