Which judge/category will lose all their acts first?

• Paula Abdul - Groups (73%, 22 Votes)
• L.A. Reid - Boys (13%, 4 Votes)
• Nicole Scherzinger - Over 30s (7%, 2 Votes)
• Simon Cowell - Girls (7%, 2 Votes)

Total Voters: 30

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There are several differences between The X Factor and American Idol, including a lower minimum age, no upper age limit, the ability for groups to audition, and auditions being conducted with music instead of a-capella.

What I think is the biggest difference between the two shows is how the acts are divided up into four categories: Boys, Girls, Over 30s and Groups. In addition, one judge has been assigned to each category to mentor the acts throughout the season. The judges pick the songs, help with the choreography, set design, and costume, and give their acts tips on how to perform the song. And as we saw last week during the Top 17, the judges can and will blame the other judges for bad song choices, choreography, and anything else outside of an act’s control.

But does each category have the same chance of winning this competition?

Critics of American Idol have claimed for years that there is a strong bias towards the guys on that show as tween, teen, and young adult girls all text vote nonstop for whatever guy they are crushing on at the moment. Despite women winning three of the first four seasons of the show, only one girl has won since then, and that was Jordin Sparks all the way back in Season 6.

The U.K. version of The X Factor isn’t much different. With seven winners under their belt, the Boys category has won four times while the Girls category has one twice and the Overs category one once, though it should be noted that it was a guy who won the Overs category. That gives the boys a five to two advantage.

Is there any reason to think that things won’t be different in the U.S.? Not really. While the 18-49 rating for The X Factor is averaging two to three percentage points lower than American Idol, it’s still higher than just about every TV show on the schedule right now. And though I do understand that the 18-49 category is made up of both men and women, and obviously doesn’t include the 10-17 age range, the size of that category does give an indication of how many teen, tween, and young adult women are voting.

So while its possible that another demographic can influence the voting, they will still have a large hurdle to overcome to get their favorite to win.

If you take demographics out of the voting equation and simply look at talent, three of the four groups seem to be on equal footing. L.A. Reid has a powerhouse in the Boys category by the name of Chris Rene, someone who gathered a lot of positive press during his audition. Nicole Scherzinger has LeRoy Bell, an Overs gentleman who could put many, if not most, of today’s stars to shame with his voice. And Simon Cowell has Melania Amaro, a Girl who has been a favorite to win the whole thing since her audition during the first night.

Nicole’s Overs could have a slight edge thanks to Stacy Francis’ powerful voice, though there is a large segment out there who just don’t like her despite not fully understanding why they don’t like her. If Stacy can turn that around, she could be a force to reckon with.

You may have noticed that I left one category out: Paula Abdul’s Groups. And there are two reasons for this. Talent wise, the Groups category is the weakest of the four groups. The one group that I think could have been a standout group was The Brewer Boys, and they were sent home last week. I think the Stereo Hogzz stand the best chance of winning America’s hearts right now, though Lakoda Rayne could win the drooling, imbecile men vote.

But even if that happens, its still a long-shot that a group will ever win this competition.

Even in the U.K., no Group has ever won The X Factor. Two Groups have come in second while three Groups have come in third, but no Group has ever won the show. And that’s in a country that loves and reveres groups.

Groups are much less loved and revered here in the U.S. Yes, the 80s were a much different story: Wham, Hall and Oats, Culture Club, The B-52′s, the Go-Go’s – all were loved by pastel-wearing, big hair-sporting music lovers. But since then, the mystique of the groups has faded in America. We still take a shine to an occasional boyband and girlband, but not in the quantity that we once did. I could see the Stereo Hogzz becoming appreciated as a boyband group, but suspect that if it happens, it will happen after they are off the X Factor.

I’m not sure Simon Cowell understands that about America, though. He sees the success of NSync, the Backstreet Boys, the Spice Girls, even the Jonas Brothers, and thinks that America is just licking their lips waiting for another group to take hold of us. And it may be about time for another group to take America by storm since the Jonas Brothers heyday has done come and gone. But I just don’t see it happening with one of the three Groups in this competition.

With that said, my guess is that Paula Abdul’s Groups will be the first group completely eliminated of acts. In fact, even before seeing the performances tomorrow night, my guess is that InTENsity will be the ones saying goodbye. History has shown that America likes their groups in the two to five member range. Ten just isn’t gonna do anything for us, no matter how high energy the kids are. The fact that six of the members can’t sing is completely irrelevant.

So what do you think? Vote in our poll at the beginning of this post on which judge/category you think will lose all their acts first? Then leave your thoughts in the comments below.

And remember to join me back here Wednesday night at 8 PM ET / 7 PM CT as I live blog The X Factor Top 12 performances, followed by the Results show on Thursday night. Also, don’t forget the live Idol Radio Show on Wednesday at 11 PM ET / 10 PM CT as I talk about The Sing-Off, The X Factor, American Idol, and any other entertainment news that needs to be discussed.